June 2014 Newsletter

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June 2014, Issue: 4

Welcome to the June edition of the Probit newsletter!

First, a few key results from some of the surveys that you may have participated in over the last few months.


World Election

We would like to take some time to welcome our new members of the panel and share some of their results from the first survey they participated in. We asked new panel members who they would vote for in a hypothetical global election and German Chancellor Angela Merkel currently holds the early lead with approximately 22% of the vote, a 2% lead over current Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Of course, these results are very preliminary and we’ll be interested to see who emerges as the panel favorite as more new members of the panel have a chance to respond.


Ontario Election Results

EKOS was pleased to accurately predict Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal majority victory on June 12th in the Ontario election.

Chart - EKOS Final Poll vs. Ontario Election results

Our majority call was not based on a single poll, but rather patterns that we observed throughout the campaign. A relatively stable campaign had us call a Liberal victory as early as June 5th, though an abrupt post-debate boost saw the Progressive Conservatives leading on two separate nights. This surge quickly subsided, however, and the results returned to their pre-debate levels.

Throughout the campaign, EKOS observed emotional response to the current government. As veteran Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg noted there are three things that win elections: number one is emotion, number two is emotion and number three is emotion. Strong emotions, be they positive, like hope, or negative, like anger, produce engagement and turnout, whereas tepid emotions, like discouragement, do not.

Chart - Kathleen Wynne's Liberal Emotion

These results show the close race with a modest but significant emotional advantage to Wynne. Although almost no one is particularly “happy” in economically anxious Ontario, the balance of strong positive emotions (happy and hopeful) significantly outweighs the negative (angry).


EKOS Accurately predicts Quebec Liberal Victory

Adding to our recent success EKOS accurately projected Phillipe Couillard’s victory on April 7th in Quebec.

Chart - EKOS Final Poll vs. Quebec Election results

Click here to see EKOS president Frank Graves speaking on CBC’s Power and Politics with Evan Solomon to discuss the Quebec election results and the issues that are important to Quebecers.


What is Really Going on with the Federal Political Landscape?

With the Liberals around 36 points, the Conservatives around 27, and the NDP around 22, the voter landscape is profoundly different that it was when the Conservatives gained a majority in May of 2011.

Chart - Federal Vote Intention

The economy continues to dominate public concerns along with a growing concern for social issues.

One last thing of note is who Canadians like; the following image shows approval ratings for our political leaders.

Chart - Job Approval Rating


Congratulations to our Prize Winners!

We would like to offer a big congratulation to the winners of our most recent draws, all of who won cash prizes by taking part in our surveys.

April 2014

S. D. QC, $250 cash

March 2014

D. Simms. ON, $300 cash
A. Z. ON, $300 cash
H. M. AB, $500 cash

December 2013

K. D. ON, $100 cash


Probit: What We Do

The key principle of Probit‘s methodology that distinguishes our panel from others is that the Probit research panel is probability-based. This allows us to accurately project survey data to the total Canadian population versus non-probability opt-in online panels which have recently, during the Ontario election, been incorrectly reported in major national media with inappropriate margin of error estimates. For more on this subject, please click here.


A Friendly Reminder

In order to ensure our survey invitations reach your inbox please add us to your address book. Click here to view instructions on how to white list emails for several popular Internet Service Providers and email companies.

Keep your profile up to date! This will ensure you receive invitations to surveys that are most relevant to you. You can update your profile at anytime, by visiting us at probit.ca or call us at 1.855.288.4932.


Questions/Ideas?

Do you have a question about surveys or research? Or, do you have an idea for future articles and/or topics? We’d love to hear from you. Submit your questions/ideas here.


Thank you for your participation; your continued input is essential towards maintaining the unique importance of Probit surveys in national issues.

Copyright © 2014 Probit, Inc. Part of EKOS Research Associates